Navigating Tensions: China’s Naval Expansion and the Taiwan Strait

As Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, has taken office, China’s third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, recently completed its maiden voyage, symbolising a significant milestone in China’s naval expansion. Concurrently, the US Navy destroyer USS Halsey conducted a routine transit through the Taiwan Strait last Wednesday, marking the third such passage by US warships this year. These developments underscore the ongoing strategic competition in the region and the critical timing of Taiwan’s political transition.

Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te asked China on Monday to stop its military and political threats, saying in his inauguration speech that peace is the only choice and that Beijing had to respect the choice of the Taiwanese people. Lai, addressing the crowd outside the Japanese-colonial-era presidential office in central Taipei, repeated a call for talks with China, which views the proudly democratic island as its own territory and has never renounced the use of force to bring it under Beijing’s control. “I also want to urge China to stop intimidating Taiwan politically and militarily and to take on the global responsibility with Taiwan to work hard on maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the region, to ensure the world is without the fear of war breaking out,” he said. “We also want to declare this to the world: Taiwan makes no concessions on democracy and freedom. Peace is the only option, and prosperity is our goal for long-term peace and stability.”

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called Taiwan’s newly inaugurated President Lai Ching-te “disgraceful”, escalating Beijing’s rhetoric just a day after Lai took office. China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, views Lai as a “separatist” and has rejected his offers of talks. Since Lai won the election in January, Beijing has generally avoided directly naming him, in contrast to the period leading up to the election when they regularly denounced him by name and framed the election as a choice between war and peace. China considers such language as implying that China and Taiwan are separate countries, a red line for Beijing. China has stated that any move by Taiwan to declare formal independence would be grounds for attacking the island.

In response to the US military’s passage through the Taiwan Strait, Li Xi, spokesperson for the PLA Eastern Theater Command, stated that the command organised air and naval forces to monitor and warn off the US vessel throughout its passage, handling the situation in accordance with the law and regulations. The command’s forces remain on high alert, firmly defending national sovereignty, security, and regional peace and stability.

Will the launch of the Fujian bring peace or turmoil to the Taiwan Strait, the Western Pacific, and even the Asia-Pacific region? It should be noted that the world is currently far from peaceful – the Russia-Ukraine war has been ongoing for over two years, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues, the refugee crisis in Europe has triggered serious social and economic crises, and the shadow of war looms over the world.

The rise of China’s military power, especially its navy, is an inevitable development. While countries like the US and India may not welcome a growing China that could potentially dominate the region, China’s strength is a natural outcome of great power competition. After suffering several defeats following the Opium Wars in 1840, with the cession of Hong Kong and Macau as painful prices, Chinese people came to believe that “truth only exists within the range of cannon fire.” China thus embarked on a path of rapid development, astonishing Western countries with the speed of its military and economic growth.

The Fujian is named after Fujian Province, where President Xi Jinping worked for years before assuming the nation’s top leadership position. The Chinese carrier is expected to be assigned to the PLAN’s East Sea Fleet, which is responsible for the Taiwan Strait off Fujian Province. China aims to enhance its anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities in the South and East China Seas and the Western Pacific Ocean, which would hinder US aircraft carriers and other aircraft from approaching. Once deployed, the Fujian will provide China’s naval forces with unprecedented striking power and enhanced power projection capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region.

The official commissioning of the Fujian is only a matter of time. By then, China will possess a considerable maritime combat capability in the Western Pacific. While the PLA’s strength now outmatches that of the Taiwanese military in various aspects, Beijing is more concerned about US intervention – as evidenced by the passage of the USS Halsey through the Taiwan Strait mentioned at the beginning of this article. Despite US assurances to adhere to the “One China Principle,” arms sales to Taiwan are ongoing, which has greatly displeased Beijing and partly contributed to the current state of U.S.-China relations.

As I discussed in another article, China has not committed to renouncing the use of force in the Taiwan issue. As the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) entered its third term, Beijing’s hardline stance appears unlikely to change. Just earlier this month, Beijing stated that the absence of Taiwan from the upcoming World Health Assembly (WHA) was solely caused by the DPP authorities. Taiwan has been excluded from the WHA for eight consecutive years, but its responses have been limited to weak protests. This exclusion from the WHA is not merely a diplomatic slight but also a strategic manoeuvre by Beijing to isolate Taiwan on the international stage. The DPP’s inability to secure Taiwan’s participation in such important global health forums underscores the challenges it faces in countering Beijing’s influence. Taiwan’s exclusion from the WHA also highlights the broader issue of its international recognition and the constant pressure from Beijing to diminish its global presence.

It is the launch of the third aircraft carrier that has given Beijing such strong confidence. If China is determined to use force on the Taiwan issue, whether Western countries led by the United States will intervene remains uncertain. However, it can be certain that Taiwan will not be able to hold out for long. After all, China today has become the world’s second-largest military power in practice, following the United States. China is rapidly narrowing its military gap with the United States while also widening its military gap with Taiwan. Such a significant gap may one day disrupt the balance in the Taiwan Strait. We all know that Xi and Beijing are not content with the status quo on the Taiwan issue, and the Fujian has bolstered Beijing’s confidence in facing this issue head-on. According to reliable sources, China is also accelerating the development of its fourth aircraft carrier, the Type 004, which will be a nuclear-powered carrier with a displacement of around 100,000 tons, comparable to the Nimitz-class and Ford-class carriers. At that time, whether the presence of US warships in the Taiwan Strait would still be effective remains to be seen.

China’s construction of the Type 004 aircraft carrier, potentially nuclear-powered, signifies a significant expansion of its naval capabilities. This development could reshape the maritime balance of power in Asia and challenge US naval dominance, especially in areas like the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. The carrier’s advanced capabilities could enable China to project a more formidable presence in international waters despite its limited regional military bases compared to the extensive network and alliances of the US with countries such as Australia, South Korea, and Japan. While this development recalibrates regional power dynamics, the operational focus of Chinese carriers remains primarily on supporting joint landing operations targeting Taiwan. China’s naval strategy, aiming to extend its influence beyond the second island chain and into the Indian Ocean, signifies a long-term goal to challenge US maritime supremacy.

In conclusion, despite China’s military advancements and growing assertiveness, the Taiwan issue remains a complex and potentially volatile flashpoint in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly highlighted by China’s rapid military advancements and the recent inauguration of Taiwan’s new president. The actions and intentions of both China and the United States will continue to shape the dynamics of the Taiwan Strait, with far-reaching implications. As China accelerates its military buildup, symbolised by the launch of the Fujian, and the US maintains its strategic presence, the stakes in this geopolitical chess game are higher than ever. Effective communication, robust dialogue, and a genuine commitment to peaceful resolution are not just essential but imperative to managing this escalating tension. The world watches closely, knowing that any miscalculation could trigger consequences beyond the Asia-Pacific, impacting global peace and stability. The future of Taiwan, and indeed the broader region, hinges on the delicate balance of power, diplomacy, and restraint exercised by all parties involved.