Special Report: China improves its ability to strike Taiwan from all sides

In its most recent military exercise around Taiwan, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) demonstrated its ability to deploy a large number of aircraft from its landward bases against Taiwan, and showed that it can conduct a sizeable number of carrier-borne aircraft sorties to isolate the eastern side of the island.

Named ‘Joint Sword-2024B’ and conducted by the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command (ETC), the exercise was China’s second multiservices drill around Taiwan in 2024. The ETC’s joint command centre launched the exercise by issuing an “action order” for ships and aircraft to approach “Taiwan from multiple directions” and launch “a joint assault to create a multipronged encirclement”, the Chinese Ministry of National Defense (MND) said on 14 October.

China’s MND spokesperson said the exercise was a response to a pro-independence speech by Taiwan President Lai Ching-te. The exercise was “not a repetition of previous drills” but an effort to “intensify pressure” against “Taiwanese independence”, the spokesperson said.

An initial force of 25 PLA aircraft appeared around Taiwan up to 0800 h local time on 14 October, according to the Taiwan MND. Taiwan also tracked seven PLA Navy (PLAN) vessels and four official vessels in the waters around the island. Sixteen PLA aircraft subsequently breached Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ), the Taiwan MND said.

PLA air activity subsequently escalated. Taiwan’s MND said it detected 153 PLA aircraft between 0502 h and 2057 h local time on 14 October. Out of these, 111 aircraft entered the ADIZ, according to the Taiwan MND. This is the highest number of PLA combat aircraft recorded per day in the ADIZ since Taiwan’s MND began disclosing ADIZ-related data from September 2020.

According to the Taiwan MND, 28 aircraft crossed the median line, the de facto maritime border between China and Taiwan. The MND described the aircraft as being ‘main’ and ‘auxiliary’ combat aircraft.

‘Main’ combat aircraft likely includes high-performance, fixed-wing combat aircraft such as the Chengdu J-10, Xian JH-7A, Shenyang J-16, and/or Sukhoi Su-30MK2. ‘Auxiliary’ combat aircraft likely comprises supporting or special mission aircraft such as the Shaanxi Y-8/Y-9-based variants and KJ-500 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft.

While Taiwan’s MND has not disclosed the types of PLA aircraft used in the exercise, China’s MND said units of the PLA Air Force (PLAAF), the PLA Rocket Force (PLARF), and the PLAN participated. MND videos of the exercise showed Tengden TB-001 unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), J-10s, J-16s, and one new sub-variant of the KJ-500 equipped with an in-flight refuelling (IFR) probe.

Janes analysis of Chinese MND footage of the exercise shows that the J-10s and J-16s were armed with PL-10 short-range infrared homing air-to-air missiles (AAMs), and PL-12A/B/C and PL-15 long-range AAMs. While the footage did not reveal air-to-ground weaponry, China’s MND claimed some aircraft dropped bombs on live-fire areas designated around Taiwan.

The broad objectives of the exercise were to achieve battlefield dominance by honing sea and air combat readiness, blockading key ports, and striking sea and land targets, according to China’s MND. “Various types of fighter aircraft and bombers of the ETC crossed the strait and approached [Taiwan]. Through the linkage of ship-aircraft systems and multipronged encirclement, they seized control of the ‘battlefield’,” China’s MND added.

Liberation Army (PLA), including a naval aircraft carrier and coastguard units. The 111 Chinese military aircraft deployed into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone was a record number. (Taiwan Ministry of National Defense/Japan Ministry of Defense/China Ministry of National Defense

A PLARF brigade also manoeuvred to the combat area overnight, according to China’s MND. “Upon receiving the order, the brigade launched multitype, large-volume, and multiwave simulated fire strikes on predetermined targets … occupied [new] launch positions, and was ready to initiate subsequent strike operations,” the MND said.