Marriage registrations in China reach historic low

In recent years, China has seen a dramatic decrease in marriage registrations, reaching unprecedented lows. This trend is driven by various factors, such as evolving social norms, economic pressures, and changing perspectives on relationships and family life. Young people today prioritize personal and professional development, often delaying or forgoing marriage. The high cost of living and housing further discourages couples from tying the knot.

The consequences of this decline are extensive and multifaceted. Demographically, the drop in marriages contributes to a lower birth rate, exacerbating the issues of an aging population and potential labour shortages. Economically, fewer marriages mean less demand for housing, which can depress the real estate market and affect related industries.

Socially, the traditional fabric of Chinese society is under strain. Marriage and family have long been central to Chinese culture, and the decline in these institutions can lead to a sense of disconnection and instability. This shift prompts policymakers to rethink support systems and introduce measures to encourage marriage and child bearing. For instance, there may be increased incentives for families, such as tax breaks, housing subsidies, and improved parental leave policies.

As China navigates this demographic and societal transformation, addressing the root causes and mitigating the adverse effects will be crucial. Engaging in broader discussions about gender roles, work-life balance, and societal expectations can help foster a more supportive environment for marriage and family formation. These efforts are essential to adapting to the changing demographic landscape while maintaining social cohesion and economic stability.

China has experienced a significant decline in marriage registrations, reaching a new low of 4.747 million couples in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a decrease of over 15.5 percent compared to the same period last year. Data released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs on November 1st indicates that the number of registered marriages from January to September 2024 fell by 943,000 couples from 5.690 million in the previous year.

During the first half of 2024, marriage registrations were already nearing record lows, with a year-on-year decrease of 494,000 couples. The data suggests that the most substantial drop occurred from July to September, with 445,000 fewer marriages registered compared to the same period in the previous year. The Ministry’s statistics reveal a persistent downward trend in marriage registrations over the past several years, despite a brief recovery in 2023.

Observers attribute the declining marriage rates among young people in China to high unemployment and rising living costs. Ji Feng, a former leader of the Guizhou University Students’ Autonomous Federation during the 1989 student protest, discussed this trend in an interview with The Epoch Times. He explained that many recent college graduates and postgraduates are currently unemployed and living at home.

“The economic downturn has made it challenging for many to afford even basic necessities, which forces people to prioritize survival above all else,” Ji noted. “Marriage is no longer a priority.”

Historically, the average age to marry was around 25, but now many young Chinese remain single into their 30s. “The primary focus for most is now on securing a livelihood, finding employment, and pursuing meaningful work,” Ji added, highlighting how survival has become the utmost priority in the current economic climate. This shift reflects broader societal changes and economic pressures impacting personal decisions.

In response to the concerning trend of declining marriage registrations, Chinese lawmakers have revised a draft law to streamline the marriage registration process while making divorce more challenging. On August 13, the Ministry of Civil Affairs released a draft for public consultation on the “Regulations on Marriage Registration (Revised Draft).” The proposed changes include removing the requirement for a household registration book for marriage registration and implementing a 30-day cooling-off period for divorce filings.

Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of women’s roles in establishing a “new trend of family,” highlighting that effective women’s work is crucial for family harmony, social stability, national development, and progress. In late 2023, Xi stressed the need to actively promote a new culture of marriage and child birth and to provide better guidance on young people’s perspectives on marriage, family, and child bearing.

Analysts are forecasting that 2024 will witness the lowest number of marriage registrations in China since 1980, which could negatively impact the birth rate. He Yafu, the author of “Population Crisis: Reflecting on China’s Family Planning Policy,” noted that over the past decade, the first three quarters of the year typically accounted for 72 to 79 percent of total annual marriage registrations. Consequently, he predicts that this year’s total will range between 6.01 million and 6.59 million couples, with a median estimate of about 6.3 million couples. Even at the upper limit of 6.59 million, this figure would still fall short of the number of registrations in 2022. Additionally, He emphasized that this year’s decline in marriage registrations is likely to lead to a lower birth rate in the following year.