Startups are China’s future, according to Xi, but VCs are still wary of them.

The technology sector in China has recently had a lot to be happy about.

The majority of the Covid Zero limitations are now behind us, new video game releases are once again getting authorized (important for Tencent Holdings Ltd. and NetEase Inc.), and Didi Global Inc.’s ride-hailing service has returned to Chinese app stores. President Xi Jinping emphasized the significance of the private sector to China’s economy on Monday, and the Hang Seng Tech Index has increased by nearly 50% since late October.

Beijing’s daily regulation whipping is no longer audible to us, but aftershocks still resound. The dangers have only been emphasized by the recent vanishing of Bao Fan, a well-known tech financier who assisted deals that gave rise to the modern Didi and Meituan.

How far to put your faith in the seeds of positivity is the current debate among tech founders and investors with whom we spoke.

Nobody is certain how long China’s authorities will maintain their more welcoming stance toward technology and private business. Could this be merely a stopgap move, an unavoidable evil, so to speak, to steady the economy? Will there be space for high-growth companies when China is operating at full capacity, or will authorities once more look upon the “disorderly expansion of capital”?”

“Rome was not built in a day, and confidence cannot be built overnight,” said creator and financier Kenneth Lai of Hong Kong.

Many business owners lack confidence. One-third of the businesses in Lai’s portfolio are aggressively refocusing their operations on markets outside of China. They continue to fear a swift change in strategy.

Ray Xiao, who co-founded the Shenzhen-based e-cigarette company Snowplus Tech, is also focusing on the outside world. The company was compelled to shut all 400 of its shops in China as a result of new laws governing this industry, which include a prohibition on tastes other than tobacco. Xiao is optimistic about the potential for development in Russia, Southeast Asia, and more modestly controlled countries like Canada.

Going overseas has dangers of its own, and the continuing hostilities between Beijing and Washington may drive some people to make bad decisions. Sanctions are a threat when building in the US, as Tiktok is all too familiar with. Aside from that, do you really want to be on the outside peering in if China’s economy does recover?

According to Angela Zhang, a specialist on Chinese regulation issues at the University of Hong Kong, uncertainty will continue to affect Chinese internet firms. “Investor confidence has significantly decreased in recent years,” she claimed. The regulation balance might shift once more.

Tech firms that expand internationally will have to avoid sociopolitical risks, and those that remain in China will have to tread carefully around constantly shifting regulation redlines. There is money to be made either way, but nobody should anticipate an easy journey.