China’s marriage rate plummets to record low in 2024, fanning population decline concerns

China’s marriage rate has reached a historic low in 2024, according to recent data from the country’s civil affairs ministry.

The continued decline in marriages is exacerbating concerns over the nation’s plummeting birth rate, despite the Chinese government’s persistent efforts to encourage young couples to marry and start families.

This trend poses significant demographic and economic challenges, prompting a deeper analysis of its root causes, implications, and potential policy responses.

Official data reveals that the number of registered marriages in China has been steadily declining for over a decade.

The latest figures indicate that in 2024, the marriage rate fell to its lowest point since records began, continuing a trend that has been evident since the early 2010s.

The number of newly registered marriages dropped to approximately 6.5 million in 2023, and preliminary data suggests a further decline in 2024. In contrast, China recorded over 13 million marriages annually in the early 2000s.

This downward trajectory is alarming for policymakers, as marriage remains closely linked to birth rates in China.

The country already recorded a decline in population for the second consecutive year in 2023, with deaths outnumbering births.

With fewer marriages, the likelihood of an accelerated birth rate decline increases, further exacerbating demographic concerns.

Possible reasons

Changing societal attitudes: Younger generations in China are increasingly delaying or forgoing marriage altogether.

Many Chinese youth prioritise career advancement, personal fulfilment, and financial independence over traditional family expectations.

The emphasis on education and career progression, particularly for women, has led to a postponement of marriage and childbirth.

Additionally, attitudes toward relationships and marriage are shifting.

Many young people view marriage as less essential to a fulfilling life, and cohabitation without formal marriage is becoming more socially acceptable.

Economic pressures: The rising cost of living, housing, and child-rearing has significantly deterred young Chinese from getting married.

In major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, housing prices have soared, making it increasingly difficult for young couples to afford homes—a crucial factor in marriage decisions.

Furthermore, the costs associated with wedding ceremonies, bride prices (a traditional dowry-like practice), and the long-term financial responsibilities of raising children add to the hesitation.

Gender imbalance and relationship challenges: China’s long-standing one-child policy, which was in effect from 1979 to 2015, has contributed to a significant gender imbalance.

There are millions more men than women in China, creating challenges for many men in finding spouses.

This imbalance is particularly pronounced in rural areas, where economic opportunities are limited, making it harder for men to attract partners.

Moreover, the increasing educational and financial independence of women has raised expectations for potential partners.

Many women prefer to marry men with similar or higher socioeconomic status, leading to a growing mismatch in marriage prospects.

Work-life balance and societal pressures: China’s highly competitive work culture leaves little room for personal life, particularly for urban professionals.

Long working hours, high stress, and job insecurity make marriage and family planning difficult.

Many prioritise their careers over starting a family, viewing marriage as a potential hindrance to professional growth.

Additionally, societal pressure and family expectations can also be discouraging.

The tradition of elder family members urging younger generations to marry has led to resistance among youth who prefer to make their own life choices.

Government’s efforts

Recognising the demographic crisis, the Chinese government has implemented various measures to encourage marriage and childbirth. These include financial incentives, relaxed housing policies, and workplace benefits for married couples and parents.

However, despite manifold efforts by authorities to encourage young Chinese couples to wed and have children, China’s marriage rate continues to plunge.

Experts have pointed out some potential consequences of declining marriage and birth rates in China —

Ageing population and workforce shortages: China’s rapidly ageing population threatens economic growth and labour force sustainability.

With fewer young people entering the workforce, the country risks slower productivity and innovation. A shrinking workforce also increases the burden on social security and pension systems.

Economic slowdown: Lower birth rates lead to reduced consumer demand over time.

Fewer children mean lower spending on education, childcare products, and family-related services.

In the long term, this could contribute to economic stagnation.

Social and cultural shifts: The decline in marriage and birth rates could lead to significant changes in family structures and social dynamics.

Traditional family-based support systems for elderly care may weaken, increasing reliance on government welfare systems.

Increased gender-related social issues: With millions more men than women, issues such as loneliness, mental health problems, and social instability could rise.

Some experts warn that growing numbers of unmarried men in rural areas may lead to higher rates of human trafficking and bride-buying practices.

However, to counteract these trends, China may need to introduce more substantial reforms, including comprehensive economic support, workplace flexibility, gender equality measures, and enhanced social security.

China’s record-low marriage rate in 2024 is a symptom of deeper socioeconomic challenges that require comprehensive policy responses.

While the Chinese government has taken steps to encourage marriage and childbirth, broader structural reforms are needed to address economic pressures, work-life balance, and gender disparities.

Without effective interventions, China faces the risk of long-term population decline, economic slowdown, and profound societal shifts.