China’s decisions to make a significant increase in its defence spending this year as well and drop the mention of “peaceful unification” of Taiwan are set to increase uneasiness in the South China Sea region. The neighbouring countries are likely to respond by continuing to allocate more to military expenditure to counter Chinese aggression. This is going to make the region unstable further.
China’s defence spending has more than doubled in the past ten years of Xi Jinping’s rule. During the same period, the region saw escalated military conflict.[1] China has earmarked USD231 billion this year, which makes a straight increase for consecutive nine years.[2] Modernisation of the People’s Liberation Army is on the agenda.[3]
Some experts believe the actual defence spending is much higher than the official numbers show. Chinese military budget does not include military R&D, some procurement, paramilitary forces and the coastguard. Tai Ming Cheung, director of the Institute on Global Conflict and Co-operation said “I would assume that it is at least a double-digit [year-on-year] rate of growth overall.”.[4]
Addressing the NPC, Chinese Premier Li Qiang did not mention the “peaceful unification” of Taiwan, thus signalling the adoption of a more aggressive stand. “China is showing that in the coming decade, it wants to grow its military to the point where it is prepared to win a war if it has no choice but to fight one,” said Li Mingjiang, a defence scholar at Singapore-based Rajaratnam School of International Studies.[5]
This development has received a strong reaction from Taipei as the Chinese budget report speaks of measures that are aimed at opposing Taiwan’s independence in 2024.[6] Taiwanese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Jeff Liu said Taiwan was not a subordinate of China and it would fight for its freedom.[7] Taiwan has been for decades under constant pressure of military action from China, which led it to invest heavily in boosting its defence capabilities.
Taiwan allocated 24.2 percent more to defence sector in the current year against the backdrop of constant military threats, airspace violations and naval drills by the Chinese forces.[8] If China attacks Taiwan, it could translate into a prolonged war, escalating a conflict in the region, warned London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.[9] This has led other neighbours of China to pursue upgradation of military capabilities.
Japan is strengthening its military preparedness thanks to the growing conflict with China, especially, in relation to the control over the Senkaku islands in the East China Sea. Japan’s involvement seems inevitable if China attacks Taiwan even as Tokyo is concerned about China’s maritime ambitions and military assertiveness in East China Sea.
Japan allocated a record USD 52.67 billion to the defence sector this year, as it sees China as a security threat.[10] It was a 12 percent jump year-on-year even as Japan plans to double its defence spending to 2 percent of the country’s gross domestic product by 2027.[11][12] The 2023 Japanese defence white paper called China’s current external stance, military activities, and other activities a matter of serious concern and sought Japan to respond with its comprehensive national power.[13]
The Philippines has increased its defence spending to counter Chinese “harassment”.[14] It earmarked USD 4.1 billion on military expenditure—annual growth in double digits.[15] Moreover, it plans to spend USD35 billion on upgrading its defence capabilities to fight off Chinese hegemony in the South China Sea.[16] Justifying the higher military expenditures, Filipino lawmaker Joey Salceda said “It doesn’t matter what we can afford. We can explore different sources.”[17]
Indonesia too has upped its defence spending for military overhaul amid the rising conflict between China and ASEAN block nations over maritime boundary disputes. It planned 20 percent annual increase in the fund allocation for the defence sector. “The needs were put forward by the defence ministry. They considered them as a necessity given the condition of our military hardware as well as rising threats amid increasing geopolitical and geo-security dynamics,” said Indonesia Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati.[18]
China’s growing military assertiveness is a major reason for South Korea to spend more on defence. Its military expenditure rose by 4.5 percent this year to USD45 billion even as it is expected to cross USD52 billion in 2028.[19][20] The higher military spending in the China Sea Region can be detrimental if Chinese aggression causes small conflicts to snowball into a bigger crisis. James Char, an expert on the Chinese army at Singapore-based Nanyang Nanyang Technological University, said “A lingering concern is that aggressive interactions between the PLA and other militaries in the region carry the potential to go awry and escalate into a full-blown conflict.”[21]
END.
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-05/china-defense-spending-to-climb-7-2-as-xi-pursues-buildup
[2] https://gbcode.rthk.hk/TuniS/news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1743145-20240305.htm?spTabChangeable=0
[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YeEo8nTBoo
[4] https://www.ft.com/content/b1e89b77-d544-4a76-bc96-dc50419248db
[5] https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-drops-peaceful-reunification-reference-taiwan-raises-defence-spending-by-2024-03-05/
[6] https://hongkongfp.com/2024/03/05/china-boosts-defence-spending-amid-taiwan-south-china-sea-tensions/
[7] https://www.laprensalatina.com/taiwan-reacts-sharply-to-chinas-hardened-reunification-push/
[8] https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/5096226
[9] https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/China-preparing-for-protracted-war-says-think-tank
[10] https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/japan-makes-record-defence-spending-request-amid-tension-with-china-2023-08-31/
[11] https://apnews.com/article/japan-defense-budget-tomahauk-missile-china-b463580879c303c9c318c8149b869702
[12] https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/japan-makes-record-defence-spending-request-amid-tension-with-china-2023-08-31/
[13] https://www.mod.go.jp/en/publ/w_paper/wp2023/DOJ2023_Digest_EN.pdf
[14] https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3227316/philippines-mulls-higher-defence-budget-tackle-south-china-sea-harassment
[15] https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/philippines-proposes-double-digit-growth-in-defence-spending
[16] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-01/philippines-plans-35-billion-defense-upgrade-in-sea-claims-push
[17] https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3227316/philippines-mulls-higher-defence-budget-tackle-south-china-sea-harassment
[18] https://www.voanews.com/a/indonesia-approves-20-increase-in-defense-spending-through-2024-/7378333.html
[19] https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/2023/08/29/south-korea-government-plans-4-5-percent-rise-for-2024-defense-budget/
[20] https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/south-korea-defence-budget-to-rebound-in-2024-after-2023-dip-amid-growing-threats-from-north-korea-china/
[21] https://hongkongfp.com/2024/03/05/china-boosts-defence-spending-amid-taiwan-south-china-sea-tensions/